Without action, hundreds of millions people will have to leave their homes by 2050, according some estimates. "We cannot leave millions of displaced people and their hosts to face the consequences of a changing climate alone," says Grandi. That change needs to be "transformational" according to the UNHRC. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi appealed to global leaders at the COP27 climate change conference to take bold action to tackle the humanitarian consequences of global warming. Floods displaced 33 million people in Pakistan this year, while millions more in Africa have been affected by drought and the threat of famine, from the Horn of Africa to the continent's west coast. In 2021, there were 89.3 million people, double the number forcibly displayed a decade ago, and in 2022 that number reached 100 million, with climate disasters displacing many more people than conflicts. True livability limits are the borders we must worry about as the world warms over this century, bringing unbearable heat, drought, floods, fires, storms, and coastal erosion that make agriculture impossible and displace people.Īlready record numbers of people are being forced to flee their homes with each passing year. Adapting to the changing climate will mean chasing our own shifting niche – which for much of human history has been within the temperature range -11C to 15C (12F to 59F) – as it migrates north from the equator. On average, climate niches – the range of conditions at which species can normally exist – around the world are moving polewards at a pace of 1.15m (3.8ft) per day, although it's far faster in some places. An estimated 279 million people are packed into this thin band of land, which cuts through countries including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, the United States and Mexico.īut the conditions here are changing. The most densely populated areas of the planet are clustered around the 25-26th north parallels which has traditionally been the latitude of most comfortable climate and fertile land. Unable to adapt to increasingly extreme conditions, millions – or even billions – of people will need to move. Coastlines, island states and major cities in the tropics will be among the hardest hit, according to predictions by climate scientists. As global temperatures increase, causing climate change, sea level rise and extreme weather over the coming decades, large parts of the world that are home to some of the biggest populations will become increasingly hard to live in. Humans cannot live in large numbers in Antarctica or in the Sahara Desert, for instance. These planetary borders for our mammal species are defined by geography and climate. There are, however, true human borders set not by politics or hereditary sovereigns, but by the physical properties of our planet. They needed their labour and taxes, and emigration still poses a headache for many states. States used to be far more concerned about stopping people from leaving than preventing their arrival. Indeed, the idea of keeping foreign people out using borders is relatively recent. It can be argued, however, that most of these imaginary lines are not fit for the world of the 21st Century with its soaring population, dramatic climate change and resource scarcity. Our borders don't exist as immutable facets of the landscape, they are not natural parts of our planet, and were invented relatively recently. Yet they are an invention just like the maps I used to draw. For others, they are prison walls that limit all possibilities.īorders define our fate, our life expectancy, our identity, and so much more. For me, these lines mark exciting possibilities, with the potential for exploration and adventure, to visit foreign cultures with different foods and languages. The borders are cleanly defined, ink separating nationalities destined for different fates.
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